The Weekly Gambling Debacle
NFL: 51-46-0 NCAA: 2-7-0 Last week: 8-6-0 Season total: 53-53-0
$ Wagered: 1840 $ Won: 850.5 $ Lost: -1020.5 $Net: -170.5
Two weeks ago I predicted that week 9 would be my best gambling week yet. And your damn right it was!! 8-6 is nothing to burn a house down about, but picking 3 of my 4 wagers correctly and getting the Bengals to win out-right netted me a nice +$125 week. Bold prediction… check. Last week was my bye week. Had a lot going on and didn’t want to think that my previous week’s momentum could carry me through a week without proper research. For this week we have the proper research and are liking some of the lines. Now let’s keep this momentum going and make some damn money!
NFL (Lines as of Friday, November 18, 2011 per Las Vegas Hilton. Home Team in bold).
Atlanta (-6) over Tennessee
Atlanta has been playing great the last 4 weeks and was a few key breaks away from beating a very good New Orleans team last week. They get a Titans team coming off a surprisingly easy win against the Panthers. That win was a bit deceiving as the Panthers moved the ball and somehow committed a ridiculous amount of turnovers. The Titans’ win and Chris Johnson actually showing up last week has inflated this line a little bit. The Titans lack explosive playmakers (sans CJ 2000) and won’t be able to take advantage of the dome field advantage as much as the “built for turf” Falcons will. I see the Falcons winning by a touchdown.
Buffalo (+2) over Miami
Buffalo has been a bit exposed by the very good defenses of Dallas and New York. They don’t throw the ball downfield too much and they struggle when pressure gets to Fitzpatrick. The matchup against Miami should not bring any of these problems to fruition. Miami has the worst pass defense in the league and gets virtually no pressure on the QB. Freed Jackson should have a nice game. In a reactionary league, this line shows just how reactionary we truly are. Miami is a bad home team having lost over 80% of their home games in the last two years. They have perhaps the worst QB in the league and somehow are favored against a decent Buffalo team. I don’t get it.
Cincinnati (-7) over Baltimore
Ray Lewis is out for this week. The Red Rifle (that’s right the Fucking Red Rifle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) almost led the Bengals over the Steelers last week. I think the Ravens are not as good as everyone thinks they are. They’ve lost to the Seahawks and the Bengals. The Bengals will pound the rock and keep the game close.
Jacksonville (Pick) over Cleveland
I refuse to address this game as anything more than a joke.
Oakland (-1) over Minnesota
In what equates to essentially a pick ‘em, I like what I’m seeing from the Raiders. They stuck to the game plan beautifully and beat the Chargers without their best player. Carson Palmer is figuring things out and has a real connection with up and coming receiver Denarius Moore. The Vikings were run out of the stadium last week versus the Packers. The Raiders aren’t the Packers in any sense but I don’t see the under-utilized Percy Harvin and the rest of the Vikings weak receiving core to take advantage of the beleaguered Raiders secondary. That same secondary, with only two true corners on the roster, somehow kept the Chargers to 17 points on the road. Adrian Peterson better have a great game if the Vikings want to keep this close.
Carolina (+7) over Detroit
Last week was a fluke. Coverin’ Cam covers. Period. 7 points seems like the perfect back door cover for the Panthers. Their porous defense should give the Lions plenty of opportunities to get ahead. Detroit’s weak secondary and the legs of Coverin’ Cam should allow the Panthers pull this close in the fourth quarter. Detroit could be up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Coverin’ Cam scoring against a prevent defense with just a few minutes left, worst case scenario, would have the Panthers within 7. That means were pushing or winning and both of those, when you betting, are wins.
Tampa Bay (+14) over Green Bay
Statistically you always take two touchdowns. I could see Green Bay overlooking the lowly Bucs and allowing them to stick around as late as the 3rd quarter. Tampa Bay’s weakness is its run defense. Green Bay will air it out like it always does but damn 14 points is a lot.
Dallas (-7) over Washington D.C.
Every time I lend them a little faith the Cowboys bite me in the ass. As you can see, apparently I haven’t learned.
Arizona (+9.5) over San Francisco
The Cardinals have not been playing as bad as you might think considering they’re starting John Skeleton and have a horrible defense. The Niners are everyone’s darling, but they can’t show up every week and the Cards have covered the last three weeks ATS and have actually won their last two, one of them all the way across the country. Staying on the west coast should help with the travel fatigue.
St. Louis (-3) over Seattle
Chicago (-3.5) over San Diego
Bold Prediction #7: Chicago will play in the NFC title game.
NYG (-4) over Philadelphia
Get this bet while you still can. Mike Vick was just announced as most likely out this week. Jeremy Macklin, due to a plethora of injuries, is out as well. I know, I know, relying on Eli at home, when he’s favored, is a risky as hell proposition. But the Eagles are in disarray and the Giants are one of the most solid teams in the league. They are top ten in total defense and total offense. I like Eli to have a good game this week.
Kansas City (+15) over New England
Always take 2+ touchdowns. I know it’s hard with Tyler Palko starting as a QB. Yes, he’s actually starting a primetime game. Needless to say, I don’t think this is what ESPN had in mind when they scheduled this game. The Chiefs backfield of Palko and Battle, not exactly comparable to the return of Matt Cassel to Foxsboro and the dynamic Jamall Charles running all over the place.
*These last three games are great and interesting matchups to watch just not as interesting for wagering.
Picks to place money on: (All money wagers are $55 to win $50 unless otherwise noted)
*Just to clarify based on some questions that I have been asked:
-Wagering= Games I am telling you to put money onto/am betting myself.
-Near bets= Games that I was close to betting.
-Kryptonite= Games I am terrified of and you could not force me to gamble on.
Wagering: Cincinnati, Oakland and Carolina.
Near bets: Chicago.
Kryptonite: St. Louis, Tampa Bay.