The Weekly Gambling Debacle
NFL: 55-52-2 NCAA: 2-7-0 Last week: 4-6-2 Season total: 57-59-2
$ Wagered: 2005 $ Won: 900.5 $ Lost: -1075.5 $Net: -175.5
Happy Turkey day everyone! For the first time in my young (well not so young) memory we have three interesting and relevant games on Thanksgiving. That is truly something to be thankful for. A fun week of games with some surprisingly favorable lines; Great week of football, so let’s take some turkey and some wins!
NFL (Lines as of Wednesday, November 23, 2011 per Las Vegas Hilton. Home Team in bold).
Detroit (+6.5) over Green Bay
Green Bay is playing its third game in 11 days. That is a lot for anyone, even the defending world champs. The Lions offense went off in their last 9 possessions last week at home scoring 7 TDs after Matt Stafford’s opening 2 picks. The GB defense is surprisingly weak, especially against the pass. Combining this weakness with the emergence of Kevin Smith and a Lion’s ground offense should allow Detroit to put up some serious points and keep the game close. Whether or not they win, worst case scenario, they back door cover and lose by 3 or 4.
Dallas (-7) over Miami
I would love for this line to drop down to -6.5 and give us that additional half point on the cover. Maybe just go out there and buy that half point (pretty good idea actually). Miami has won three in a row, but against horrible competition. The Cowboys are on fire, their O-line is legit and Tony Romo should shred Miami’s weak pass defense. 6.5 would be great, but I’ll still take the seven.
Baltimore (-3) over San Francisco
The Ravens seem to play to up or down to their competition. They should be playing up to the second best team in the NFC. The battle of the Harbaughs should be a slugfest and close. The line came down from-5 to -3. Much easier to take now and Baltimore wins at home.
St. Louis (-3) over Arizona
My ridiculous picking of St. Louis continues. Hopefully the continued play of John “I wish I played as good as a” Skeleton will slot the Rams a victory.
NY Jets (-8) over Buffalo
Cincinnati (-7) over Cleveland
The Browns are actually going to have to score points in order for them to stay within 7. They will not.
Houston (-3) over Jacksonville
I actually think Matt Leinart will do well as the Houston QB. This is similar to the situation he had at USC. Two great running backs, best offensive line in every game, a game breaker on the outside and a top tier defense to rely on. Sounds like a recipe for success to me. And Leinart previously played for the quarterback destroying Ken Wisenhunt (please look at this man’s track record). This is not the scenario here.
Carolina (-3) over Indianapolis
How is this line this close? I know everyone looks at the 49 points that Carolina gave up last week and puts this line at 3. (Cough, cough…) The Colts are not the Lions. Take Coverin’ Cam, only getting three on turf. Carolina might score 40.
Tennessee (-3) over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is not a good team and their weaknesses will be highlighted by the running attack and excellent tight end play of the Titans. I really like this bet.
Atlanta (-9.5) over Minnesota
Minnesota should have lost by 2 TDs last week against the Raiders at home. They pulled it close because of horrible decision making by the Raiders’ defense. Don’t look for this to happen this week. Atlanta big.
Washington (+3.5) over Seattle
I’m taking Washington’s good defense and the return of Sexy Rexy and Santana Moss as signs of life in the nation’s capital. Taking Washington to win out right.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over New England
This line is still off the table because of the Vick injury.
Denver (+6) over San Diego
Norv Turner is on his way out. The Broncos defense is looking stellar over the last four games. If you watched the Raiders beat the Chargers a few weeks ago you can see the game plan for Denver. Rush the weak O-line of San Diego and get tons of pressure on Phillip Rivers. Pound the running game and go over the top every once in a while. Tempted to take the Broncos outright here.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Kansas City
NY Giants (-7) over New Orleans
The Giants are a great road dog and a terrible home favorite. Let’s see, oh yeah, there a road dog. Let’s go Eli.
Picks to place money on: (All money wagers are $55 to win $50 unless otherwise noted)
*Just to clarify based on some questions that I have been asked:
-Wagering= Games I am telling you to put money onto/am betting myself.
-Near bets= Games that I was close to betting.
-Kryptonite= Games I am terrified of and you could not force me to gamble on.
*Betting a lot this week gotta make up some ground and I really like the lines were getting this week.
Wagering: Detroit, Cincinnati, Carolina, Tennessee, Denver and Washington (moneyline).
Near bets: None.