Sports, Politics, Popculture--From the Minds of Twenty-Somethings

Sports, Politics, Pop Culture--From the Minds of Twenty-Somethings

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The Weekly Gambling Debacle

NFL: 55-52-2 NCAA: 2-7-0 Last week: 4-6-2 Season total: 57-59-2

$ Wagered: 2005 $ Won: 900.5 $ Lost: -1075.5 $Net: -175.5

Happy Turkey day everyone! For the first time in my young (well not so young) memory we have three interesting and relevant games on Thanksgiving. That is truly something to be thankful for. A fun week of games with some surprisingly favorable lines; Great week of football, so let’s take some turkey and some wins!

NFL (Lines as of Wednesday, November 23, 2011 per Las Vegas Hilton. Home Team in bold).

Detroit (+6.5) over Green Bay

Green Bay is playing its third game in 11 days. That is a lot for anyone, even the defending world champs. The Lions offense went off in their last 9 possessions last week at home scoring 7 TDs after Matt Stafford’s opening 2 picks. The GB defense is surprisingly weak, especially against the pass. Combining this weakness with the emergence of Kevin Smith and a Lion’s ground offense should allow Detroit to put up some serious points and keep the game close. Whether or not they win, worst case scenario, they back door cover and lose by 3 or 4.

Dallas (-7) over Miami

I would love for this line to drop down to -6.5 and give us that additional half point on the cover. Maybe just go out there and buy that half point (pretty good idea actually). Miami has won three in a row, but against horrible competition. The Cowboys are on fire, their O-line is legit and Tony Romo should shred Miami’s weak pass defense. 6.5 would be great, but I’ll still take the seven.

Baltimore (-3) over San Francisco

The Ravens seem to play to up or down to their competition. They should be playing up to the second best team in the NFC. The battle of the Harbaughs should be a slugfest and close. The line came down from-5 to -3. Much easier to take now and Baltimore wins at home.

St. Louis (-3) over Arizona

My ridiculous picking of St. Louis continues. Hopefully the continued play of John “I wish I played as good as a” Skeleton will slot the Rams a victory.

NY Jets (-8) over Buffalo

Cincinnati (-7) over Cleveland

The Browns are actually going to have to score points in order for them to stay within 7. They will not.

Houston (-3) over Jacksonville

I actually think Matt Leinart will do well as the Houston QB. This is similar to the situation he had at USC. Two great running backs, best offensive line in every game, a game breaker on the outside and a top tier defense to rely on. Sounds like a recipe for success to me. And Leinart previously played for the quarterback destroying Ken Wisenhunt (please look at this man’s track record). This is not the scenario here.

Carolina (-3) over Indianapolis

How is this line this close? I know everyone looks at the 49 points that Carolina gave up last week and puts this line at 3. (Cough, cough…) The Colts are not the Lions. Take Coverin’ Cam, only getting three on turf. Carolina might score 40.

Tennessee (-3) over Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay is not a good team and their weaknesses will be highlighted by the running attack and excellent tight end play of the Titans. I really like this bet.

Atlanta (-9.5) over Minnesota

Minnesota should have lost by 2 TDs last week against the Raiders at home. They pulled it close because of horrible decision making by the Raiders’ defense. Don’t look for this to happen this week. Atlanta big.

Washington (+3.5) over Seattle

I’m taking Washington’s good defense and the return of Sexy Rexy and Santana Moss as signs of life in the nation’s capital. Taking Washington to win out right.

Philadelphia (-4.5) over New England

This line is still off the table because of the Vick injury.

Denver (+6) over San Diego

Norv Turner is on his way out. The Broncos defense is looking stellar over the last four games. If you watched the Raiders beat the Chargers a few weeks ago you can see the game plan for Denver. Rush the weak O-line of San Diego and get tons of pressure on Phillip Rivers. Pound the running game and go over the top every once in a while. Tempted to take the Broncos outright here.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Kansas City

NY Giants (-7) over New Orleans

The Giants are a great road dog and a terrible home favorite. Let’s see, oh yeah, there a road dog. Let’s go Eli.

Picks to place money on: (All money wagers are $55 to win $50 unless otherwise noted)

*Just to clarify based on some questions that I have been asked:

-Wagering= Games I am telling you to put money onto/am betting myself.

-Near bets= Games that I was close to betting.

-Kryptonite= Games I am terrified of and you could not force me to gamble on.

*Betting a lot this week gotta make up some ground and I really like the lines were getting this week.

Wagering: Detroit, Cincinnati, Carolina, Tennessee, Denver and Washington (moneyline).

Near bets: None.

Kryptonite: None.

Friday, November 18, 2011

The Weekly Gambling Debacle

NFL: 51-46-0 NCAA: 2-7-0 Last week: 8-6-0 Season total: 53-53-0

$ Wagered: 1840 $ Won: 850.5 $ Lost: -1020.5 $Net: -170.5

Two weeks ago I predicted that week 9 would be my best gambling week yet. And your damn right it was!! 8-6 is nothing to burn a house down about, but picking 3 of my 4 wagers correctly and getting the Bengals to win out-right netted me a nice +$125 week. Bold prediction… check. Last week was my bye week. Had a lot going on and didn’t want to think that my previous week’s momentum could carry me through a week without proper research. For this week we have the proper research and are liking some of the lines. Now let’s keep this momentum going and make some damn money!

NFL (Lines as of Friday, November 18, 2011 per Las Vegas Hilton. Home Team in bold).

Atlanta (-6) over Tennessee

Atlanta has been playing great the last 4 weeks and was a few key breaks away from beating a very good New Orleans team last week. They get a Titans team coming off a surprisingly easy win against the Panthers. That win was a bit deceiving as the Panthers moved the ball and somehow committed a ridiculous amount of turnovers. The Titans’ win and Chris Johnson actually showing up last week has inflated this line a little bit. The Titans lack explosive playmakers (sans CJ 2000) and won’t be able to take advantage of the dome field advantage as much as the “built for turf” Falcons will. I see the Falcons winning by a touchdown.

Buffalo (+2) over Miami

Buffalo has been a bit exposed by the very good defenses of Dallas and New York. They don’t throw the ball downfield too much and they struggle when pressure gets to Fitzpatrick. The matchup against Miami should not bring any of these problems to fruition. Miami has the worst pass defense in the league and gets virtually no pressure on the QB. Freed Jackson should have a nice game. In a reactionary league, this line shows just how reactionary we truly are. Miami is a bad home team having lost over 80% of their home games in the last two years. They have perhaps the worst QB in the league and somehow are favored against a decent Buffalo team. I don’t get it.

Cincinnati (-7) over Baltimore

Ray Lewis is out for this week. The Red Rifle (that’s right the Fucking Red Rifle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) almost led the Bengals over the Steelers last week. I think the Ravens are not as good as everyone thinks they are. They’ve lost to the Seahawks and the Bengals. The Bengals will pound the rock and keep the game close.

Jacksonville (Pick) over Cleveland

I refuse to address this game as anything more than a joke.

Oakland (-1) over Minnesota

In what equates to essentially a pick ‘em, I like what I’m seeing from the Raiders. They stuck to the game plan beautifully and beat the Chargers without their best player. Carson Palmer is figuring things out and has a real connection with up and coming receiver Denarius Moore. The Vikings were run out of the stadium last week versus the Packers. The Raiders aren’t the Packers in any sense but I don’t see the under-utilized Percy Harvin and the rest of the Vikings weak receiving core to take advantage of the beleaguered Raiders secondary. That same secondary, with only two true corners on the roster, somehow kept the Chargers to 17 points on the road. Adrian Peterson better have a great game if the Vikings want to keep this close.

Carolina (+7) over Detroit

Last week was a fluke. Coverin’ Cam covers. Period. 7 points seems like the perfect back door cover for the Panthers. Their porous defense should give the Lions plenty of opportunities to get ahead. Detroit’s weak secondary and the legs of Coverin’ Cam should allow the Panthers pull this close in the fourth quarter. Detroit could be up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Coverin’ Cam scoring against a prevent defense with just a few minutes left, worst case scenario, would have the Panthers within 7. That means were pushing or winning and both of those, when you betting, are wins.

Tampa Bay (+14) over Green Bay

Statistically you always take two touchdowns. I could see Green Bay overlooking the lowly Bucs and allowing them to stick around as late as the 3rd quarter. Tampa Bay’s weakness is its run defense. Green Bay will air it out like it always does but damn 14 points is a lot.

Dallas (-7) over Washington D.C.

Every time I lend them a little faith the Cowboys bite me in the ass. As you can see, apparently I haven’t learned.

Arizona (+9.5) over San Francisco

The Cardinals have not been playing as bad as you might think considering they’re starting John Skeleton and have a horrible defense. The Niners are everyone’s darling, but they can’t show up every week and the Cards have covered the last three weeks ATS and have actually won their last two, one of them all the way across the country. Staying on the west coast should help with the travel fatigue.

St. Louis (-3) over Seattle

Chicago (-3.5) over San Diego

Bold Prediction #7: Chicago will play in the NFC title game.

NYG (-4) over Philadelphia

Get this bet while you still can. Mike Vick was just announced as most likely out this week. Jeremy Macklin, due to a plethora of injuries, is out as well. I know, I know, relying on Eli at home, when he’s favored, is a risky as hell proposition. But the Eagles are in disarray and the Giants are one of the most solid teams in the league. They are top ten in total defense and total offense. I like Eli to have a good game this week.

Kansas City (+15) over New England

Always take 2+ touchdowns. I know it’s hard with Tyler Palko starting as a QB. Yes, he’s actually starting a primetime game. Needless to say, I don’t think this is what ESPN had in mind when they scheduled this game. The Chiefs backfield of Palko and Battle, not exactly comparable to the return of Matt Cassel to Foxsboro and the dynamic Jamall Charles running all over the place.

*These last three games are great and interesting matchups to watch just not as interesting for wagering.

Picks to place money on: (All money wagers are $55 to win $50 unless otherwise noted)

*Just to clarify based on some questions that I have been asked:

-Wagering= Games I am telling you to put money onto/am betting myself.

-Near bets= Games that I was close to betting.

-Kryptonite= Games I am terrified of and you could not force me to gamble on.

Wagering: Cincinnati, Oakland and Carolina.

Near bets: Chicago.

Kryptonite: St. Louis, Tampa Bay.

Friday, November 4, 2011

The Weekly Gambling Debacle

NFL: 43-40-0 NCAA: 2-7-0 Last week: 6-7-0 Season total: 45-47-0

$ Wagered: 1625 $ Won: 675.5 $ Lost: -970.5 $Net: -294.5

A great weekend for football; LSU vs. Alabama, a whole truckload of NFL matchups that we are super excited to see at the 3Trifecta. In honor of this great weekend of football I am going to keep this article short and sweet. We both don’t need fillers when we have such a great weekend of football. In honor of this great weekend and the fact that I love this week’s lines, Bold prediction #6: This will be my best week of picking of the season. I love the lines this week and am looking to make a killing so here we go:

NFL (Lines as of Friday, November 4, 2011 per Las Vegas Hilton. Home Team in bold).

Atlanta (-7) over Indianapolis

The colts haven’t kept a game close against a good team and despite what the media says Atlanta is still a good team.

Tampa Bay (+8) over New Orleans

I am not sure how I’m doing it but I’m picking against the Saints. They are going to win still, but Tampa Bay is a good road team and should keep this one close against a division rival.

Houston (10.5) over Cleveland

The Browns are bad; Houston is on a roll and is getting Andre Johnson this week. The game kinda scares me as I can see it being a let-down after a couple of satisfying wins for the Texans.

Buffalo (-2) over NY Jets

NY teams tend to get a little too much money thrown their way and this is keeping this line surprisingly low. Buffalo is coming off shutting out Washington. The Jets have been terrible against good teams on the road (0-3) this year and should have lost to both the Chargers and Cowboys at home if their respective quarterbacks had not committed inexcusable and untimely turnovers in the 4th quarter.

Miami (+4) over Kansas City

KC comes off a big comeback win on Monday night, and plays a team that has covered the last 20 of 26 on the road ATS. Might be a let-down game for KC. Miami gets Daniel Thomas back and could be an upset winner in Arrowhead.

San Francisco (-3) over Washington D.C.

Am I missing something or isn’t San Fran a better team than Buffalo? Buffalo’s weak defense just shut out a hapless Redskins team that would be struggling if it was not injury plagued. The fact that they are only adds to this team’s problems.

Seattle (+11.5) over Dallas

Somehow Tavaris Jackson is playing surprisingly well in a no huddle offense. I know that isn’t saying much, but it should be just enough (that and Seattle’s surprisingly good defense) to keep this game in single digits.

Oakland (-7) over Denver

I’ll take Palmer and the Raiders’ run offense over a Tebow led offense.

Cincinnati (-3) over Tennessee

Take Cincy to win outright. They have a good D and the Titans lack explosive playmakers on offense. Benson is back and Dalton should continue to put up solid numbers with his full arsenal of weapons back and playing.

St. Louis (+2.5) over Arizona

NY Giants (+9) over New England

The Patriots are big favorites over a 5-2 team. Why is this? Bradshaw and Nicks are looking doubtful to play for the Giants, giving the Pats a definite edge. But the Giants have Eli playing good this season, a great pass rush and a former starter back up in Brandon Jacobs, ready and willing to step in and pound the rock for the men in blue. I see them keeping it close in Foxsboro.

San Diego (+5.5) over Green Bay

Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore

Chicago (+7.5) over Philadelphia

*These last three games are great and interesting matchups to watch just not as interesting for wagering.

Picks to place money on: (All money wagers are $55 to win $50 unless otherwise noted)

*Just to clarify based on some questions that I have been asked:

-Wagering= Games I am telling you to put money onto/am betting myself.

-Near bets= Games that I was close to betting.

-Kryptonite= Games I am terrified of and you could not force me to gamble on.

Wagering: Buffalo, Miami, San Francisco and Cincinnati on the moneyline ($50 to win $75).

Near bets: Pittsburgh.

Kryptonite: NY Giants, St. Louis