The Weekly Gambling Debacle
NFL: 37-33-0 NCAA: 2-7-0 Last week: 6-9-0 Season total: 39-39-0
$ Wagered: 1410 $ Won: 575.5 $ Lost: -855 $Net: -279.5
A shitty shitty week. Notre Dame’s terrible loss. The Raiders getting smashed. My picks going down the drain. I prefer to never speak of this past weekend again. My NCAA picks were 0-2, NFL 6-9; otherwise stated… horrendous. I have decided to no linger pick NCAA games until bowl season rolls around. Still over .500 for the season in the NFL and I hope we can continue to make that percentage increases weekly. So here we go:
NFL (Lines as of Friday, October 28, 2011 per Las Vegas Hilton. Home Team in bold).
Indianapolis (+8.5) over Tennessee
I like the colts. Yes I know they were just bum rushed by the Saints on Monday night but Tennessee has lost a little luster after a good start. The movement of the line from +6.5 to +8.5 helps me with the selection.
Houston (-9.5) over Jacksonville
The Jags hardly ever cover on the road. Houston is clicking a little bit more and Jacksonville still starts a rookie QB. Hard to pick a rookie QB on the road against a good team to keep it close.
Carolina (-3.5) over Minnesota
Coverin’ Cam is back in action. Ponder looked good last week in his debut. The Packers D isn’t as good as people think so don’t get too enthused by his numbers. I love love love Coverin’ Cam and see the Panthers, in a shoot out, cover 3.5.
New Orleans (-13.5) over St. Louis
I refuse to bet against the Saints.
Baltimore (-12.5) over Arizona
A very, very angry Baltimore team should be showing up on Sunday. Coupling that with the lack luster play of Kevin Kolb has demonstrated so far this season and the fact that this is a west coast team playing at 1pm on the east coast situation; I like the Ravens big. Very big.
NY Giants (-10) over Miami
All this in fighting and the suck for luck campaign makes this a lock that even the Giants can’t somehow lose at home.
Buffalo (-6) over Washington D.C.
Chris Cooley and Tim Hightower are out. The Redskins’ starting left tackle is injured. Santana Moss’ hand is broken and John Beck is starting. What does all this tell you? Washington might not score a single point despite playing a bad Buffalo defense.
Detroit (-3) over Denver
The Tebow era started with a bang. But one thing that he cannot do is throw the ball down field. His limitations will limit his teams’ ability to exploit Detroit’s weak secondary. Teams from will force Tebow to throw the ball and Detroit’s surprisingly inefficient-against-the-run-defense uses this game to get right. This is a classic overreaction line with the two loses by Detroit and comeback win weighing disproportionately on the line. Detroit should get at least 3 more points. I love taking lines where the points are missing in my favor.
Pittsburgh (+3) over New England
Possible playoff preview and the first time in forever that Pittsburgh is not favored at home. Mike Tomlin teams play amazing in big games (minus the season opener). If they get after Brady, which they will and force a few turnovers, I like their chances.
San Francisco (-8.5) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-3) over Seattle
Seattle comes back home after only scoring 3 points against the Cleveland Browns. The Cleveland Browns. I know Seattle has the greatest statistical advantage at home in the league, but not enough to keep this game close. Cincy wears down the Sea chickens on both sides of the ball and pulls away in the second half.
Dallas (+3.5) over Philadelphia
I have loved Dallas in every game this season and will continue to do so this week. I know it depends on which Philly team shows up. Both neither half of their Jekyll and Hide routine can stop the run. And last week miraculous performance on the ground by Demarco Murray should have Cowboy fans licking their lips. Philly could possibly win, but if they do win it won’t be by much. I actually like Dallas outright here.
Kansas City (+3.5) over San Diego
San Diego is making a lot of people nervous with their performance this year. They should be at 5-2 and in control of their division. Instead they have to worry about both the Raiders and Chiefs nipping at their heels. Norv Turner teams have not fared well against the spread on the road and are especially bad in big games. Take the home team getting 3.5.
Picks to place money on: (All money wagers are $55 to win $50 unless otherwise noted)
*Just to clarify based on some questions that I have been asked:
-Wagering= Games I am telling you to put money onto/am betting myself.
-Near bets= Games that I was close to betting.
-Kryptonite= Games I am terrified of and you could not force me to gamble on.
Wagering: Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore and the Cowboys on the moneyline ($50 to win $75).
Near bets: San Francisco.
Kryptonite: NY Giants, Tennessee.