The Weekly Gambling Debacle
NFL: 22-21-0 NCAA: 2-5-0 Last week: 9-6-0 Season total: 24-26-0
$ Wagered: 980 $ Won: 425.5 $ Lost: -525 $Net: -97.5
This has been a topsy-turvy week in sports, the looming NBA lockout, the beginning of MLB playoffs and the continuation of the football season both in the pros and college. Before we get into my picks for this week I want to address the NBA labor struggles.
First of all, it’s ridiculous. How can you come off of the best NBA season of the last 20 years and not have a season? I’ll tell you how, stupid people on both sides of the bargaining table. The players are paid too much, attendance is down and the owners are stupid. They could downsize two teams, lower the midlevel exception and realize that an NBA franchise is like a piece irreplaceable artwork; magnificent and not necessarily designed to make you money. Dan Gilbert, the owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers and one of the biggest pushers of a harder deal for the players once said that he could not put a price on an NBA franchise because of the value that it brought to his other businesses. What has changed1 since then? Nothing. I don't understand how men that make so much money and have had so much business success could not understand anything about business. Let me tell a quick story to illustrate. During World War II, Coke shipped tons and tons of bottles of their product to the GIs stationed throughout Europe and the Pacific. They did this at an almost complete and utter financial loss. Why? To build a customer base. Last year the NBA rebuilt their customer base. They had their best season in years and the league is packed with legitimate stars from across the globe ready to provide eager fans with the product they have a renewed energy for. And the NBA is willing to let that evaporate away due to owners lacking creativity and carrying an over-exaggerated sense of self importance. Do you think Coke would have allowed GIs to come home and not be able to buy Coke? No. They didn't and that's a big reason why Coca-Cola is the largest soft drink supplier in the world today. Product momentum matters.
Outside of uncreative and over-bloatedowners, many of whom are tied into the financial scandals bringing down this country’s economy, making demands they know can’t be met. Oh and the NBA players’ union bringing almost as dysfunctional as Michael Jackson’s domestic situation. Are they really attempting to promote, “Let us Play!” as a legitimate media strategy when people like Mo Williams get paid 8 million dollars a year to play? I hope they pull back on this suicidal strategy.
Dysfunctionality like this might actually bring down a league that was at the pinnacle of a stratospheric launch that could have brought popularity (and revenue) surpassed only by that of the NFL.
Speaking of the NFL…not a ton of exciting picks this week but I’m hoping to keep upping my winning percentage. This week I have only picked the NFL and spared myself from another failure of a weekend of picking NCAA games. Notre Dame has a bye this week and I figured a little mental rest might do me some good too.
NFL (Lines as of Friday, October 14, 2011 per Las Vegas Hilton. Home Team in bold).
Green Bay (-14) over St. Louis
The bye week allows St. Louis to rest up and keep this closer early on. But the Ram’s o-line is just atrocious. I feel bad for Sam Bradford as he gets matched up against another team that comes after the QB. This game looks eerily similar to week 4 when Green Bay covered over Denver 49-23.
Jacksonville (+12) over Pittsburgh
Philly (-2) over Washington
Philly cannot keep playing this bad. Even if their red zone offense is near the bottom of the league. 450 yards of offense and a loss is simply unacceptable. Vick needs help from his receivers and offensive line. They are killing him right now. Last week, 2 of his picks were off the hands of his receivers. Bounces like that don’t happen repeatedly. The Eagles will need to put pressure on Sexy Rexy and do a little better against the run2. The Dream team finally pulls one out.
Detroit (-4) over San Fran
Detroit is everyone’s dandy this season. San Fran looks surprisingly competent with Harbaugh at the helm3. San Fran is a great story but may be a bit overrated. The injuries to the Niners wide receivers will limit their ability to take care of Detroit’s main weakness; their secondary. Megatron scores late for a eight point win.
Carolina (+4) over Atlanta
Coverin’ Cam4 airs it out and has the poise to back door cover almost every game. His Panthers’ team has the potential to cover every week and in fact this week… they just might win out right.
Cincinnati (-7) over Indy
Curtis Painter looked good last week against a weak Chiefs defense last week. I like his 0 picks and 4 TDs in 2 games but he is still under 50% completion percentage in those 2 starts. The Bengals’ D is not KC’s and Indy is missing Joseph Addai and a bad season keeps getting worse. Take the Bengals.
NY Giants (-3.5) over Buffalo
Buffalo’s lack of defense is going to continue to catch up to them. NY is one of those crazy teams that is consistency inconsistent (yes this makes sense, *nodding his head convincingly*) and they have been for the past few years. The battle of NY goes to the Giants as long as Eli plays a good game after a bad game like he usually does.
Baltimore (-8.5) over Houston
Gary Kubiak is officially on the hot seat...again, regardless of injuries.
Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland
It seems trendy right now to pick the Browns to cover. I like the raiders though. With consistent QB play and two of the biggest, nastiest lines in the NFL the Raiders are a force to be dealt with. Bold prediction #4: The Raiders will be 6-2 at the half way point of the season. They play Cleveland, Kansas City and Denver at home in the next 3 weeks. Looks like a road to 6-2 to me.
Dallas (+6.5) New England
This is not a bad matchup for Dallas (as good of a matchup as playing Tom Mother F-ing Brady can be). They pressure the QB, and throw the ball well; the two things NE is the weakest against. Both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are healthy and ready. Dallas has been consistently underappreciated this season and uses a bye week to stay close and possibly pull out a late win in New England.
New Orleans (-4.5) over Tampa Bay
See last week’s post. Never bet against the Saints.
Chicago (+3) over Minnesota
Don’t let last week fool you, the Vikes are a stinker of a team that is masquerading as a tough out because of Adrian Peterson factor.
NYJ (-7) over Miami
I know Miami plays great on the road but that was when they were starting a competent quarterback. The backfield of Matt Moore, Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas might be the least talented in the NFL. Pair that with the Dolphins last ranked passing defense and I can’t imagine New York not covering 7 points.
Picks to place money on: (All money wagers are $55 to win $50 unless otherwise noted)
*Just to clarify based on some questions that I have been asked:
-Wagering= Games I am telling you to put money onto/am betting myself.
-Near bets= Games that I was close to betting
-Kryptonite= Games I am terrified of and you could not force me to gamble on.
Wagering: Dallas, Detroit and moneyline on Carolina (Bet $50 to win +92.5).
Near bets: NY Giants and NY Jets.
Kryptonite: Cincy, Oakland and Green Bay.
1. Besides Gilbert being a terrible owner, not brining in legit talent and losing the greatest player the NFL has seen since Kobe Bryant.
2. They really can’t do worse. .
3. Has anyone else realized how terrible Mike Singeltary was as a coach? Harbaugh has less talent and his team looks great, tough and efficient. Sorry Mad Mike, coaching is just not for you.
4. My new nick name for him!! Let’s make this go nationwide!!